Fair Grounds Pick Four Betting Strategy

Saturday’s card at Fair Grounds is headlined by the Grade 2 Risen Star, a Kentucky Derby prep race. However, that’s not the only big one on the program. In fact, the final four races of the day are all graded stakes events, and they comprise a power-packed late Pick Four.

I’ll look to take it down with an $18 ticket, one that’s bookended by my two best bets of the sequence. Here’s how I’ve put my play together.

A single in the Mineshaft

I’ve been high on No. 4 Olympiad for quite a while, and it certainly looks like he’s turning into a top-class horse. The Bill Mott trainee romped over optional claiming foes last month at Gulfstream and in doing so showed that two turns aren’t a problem.

The field in the Grade 3 Mineshaft isn’t a bad one. It includes several graded stakes winners and a few familiar faces on the circuit. However, I simply think Olympiad is an outstanding prospect who has finally starting to realize his potential. He’s the 3-1 morning-line favorite, and I think that’s an overlaid price. He’s a single for me to kick things off.

A grass grab bag

I have no such strong opinions about either of the next two legs. The Grade 3 Fair Grounds is a wide-open turf race, and I see fit to use six of the 11 runners who will go postward.

No. 10 Largent is a tepid top pick. Everything about him said he needed his last-out effort in the Grade 3 Tropical Turf. It was his first try in nearly a year, and he just didn’t look fully cranked when fourth as the 3-5 choice. He should be more race-ready here, and I’d like him a lot more if not for the far outside post. The draw means he may have to cover plenty of ground, but he may very well be talented enough to overcome that.

I’m also using No. 1 Cavalry Charge, No. 2 Forty Under, No. 3 Santin, No. 6 Adhamo and No. 7 Halo Again. One runner I’m not touching is No. 11 Two Emmys, who may very well go off favored. He’s a consistent sort who is dangerous when he coasts on the lead, but I don’t think he’ll get that trip here. The far-outside draw is an even bigger problem for him than for Largent, and I also think he may want more ground than this trip provides.

Spreading in the Rachel Alexandra

The Risen Star’s sister race is the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra, a race on the road to the Kentucky Oaks. Unlike in the Risen Star, though, I see no standout in this event.

Like in the Fair Grounds, I’m using a half-dozen. If I was forced to settle on a top pick, it would be No. 4 Dream Lith. She ran a career-best race to win the Grade 2 Golden Rod, and before that chased Echo Zulu and Juju’s Map in a pair of Grade 1 events. This isn’t an easy spot, but those divisional leaders don’t show up, and this one’s been working consistently for Robertino Diodoro.

No. 1 La Crete, No. 2 North County, No. 8 Goddess of Fire, No. 9 Awake At Midnyte and No. 11 Hidden Connection also show up on my ticket. With Echo Zulu slowly working her way back to the races, the Kentucky Oaks picture is pretty unclear at this point. A big effort by one of these runners could help sort things out, and I’m hoping it will put me on the road to a nice score.

Singling Smile Happy

I previewed the Risen Star elsewhere on Playfecta, and to make a long story short, I’m high on No. 8 Smile Happy. He’s done everything right to this point, has been flattered by Classic Causeway and White Abarrio and is working well ahead of his seasonal debut. I respect a few others in this field, but I think Smile Happy is strictly the one to beat. I’m finishing my ticket by singling him in the 13th and final race of the Saturday program.