Betting Strategies: Saturday’s Stakes-Packed Pick Four At Monmouth Park

Written By Andrew Champagne on June 17, 2022 - Last Updated on June 27, 2022
Horse Betting with William Hill and Monmouth Park

Monmouth Park hosts one of its biggest cards of the season Saturday. The New Jersey track boasts a 14-race program, one that ends with an all-stakes Pick Four.

I think the card ends with a popular multirace exotics single. However, I also believe there’s value to be had elsewhere in the sequence. I’ll look to extract it with a $13.50 ticket, and here’s how I’ve put it together.

Going against Chad Brown in the Eatontown

One of the game’s most successful trainers sends out a pair in the Grade 3 Eatontown. I like neither of them. No. 7 Lemista hasn’t won since the summer of 2020, while No. 8 Fluffy Socks isn’t without a chance but figures to be overbet.

I’m going three deep, and my top pick is No. 6 Princess Grace. She’s never run a poor race, and she won three straight graded stakes events last summer and fall. The long layoff is obviously a concern, but 7-2 hits me as a very fair price. If she’s right, I think she’ll be tough to beat.

I’ll also use No. 1 Vigilantes Way and No. 5 Whimsical Muse. The former makes her second start off a long break and has two wins and two seconds in four local starts. The latter, meanwhile, took a big step forward with a win over this turf course last time out. There are back races, however, that suggest this wasn’t a total fluke, and maybe top local trainer Kelly Breen has figured her out.

Another stand in the Pegasus

Like the Eatontown, the Pegasus Stakes boasts a Chad Brown-trained favorite I’m just not crazy about. No. 4 Electability was a distant third in the Grade 3 Peter Pan. We the People and Golden Glider didn’t run well in the Belmont, and Electability has never gone two turns on dirt.

I much prefer No. 2 Home Brew, whose lone poor effort to date came in the slop two back. He returned off the layoff to win a two-turn stakes race, and that day’s runner-up has since come back to win. At their likely prices, this one hits me as a much better bet.

No. 3 Mr Jefferson and No. 8 Cooke Creek are on my ticket as well. The former placed in a pair of races at this level in Maryland, while the latter may not have appreciated off-tracks in each of his last three outings.

Three deep again in the Monmouth

The Grade 3 Monmouth is another race with a heavy Chad Brown presence. Unlike the first two legs, I think Brown holds a powerful hand here. He trains two of the three runners I’m using.

No. 3 Public Sector almost certainly needed his return off of a long break in the Grade 1 Turf Classic. I think he’s eligible to improve, given the seasoning and the considerable class drop. No. 6 Sacred Life, meanwhile, has been chasing some very nice turf horses for most of his career. His usual race likely puts him right there in this spot, and I can’t ignore him.

Should he run, I’ll also throw in No. 5 Ever Dangerous. He doesn’t have a rider listed, so that’s far from a certainty. However, he hasn’t run a bad race in nearly two years, and he’s been working consistently ahead of his return.

Not getting cute in the Salvator Mile

It’s not sexy to take a 4-5 favorite. However, I just can’t see No. 3 Hot Rod Charlie losing the Grade 3 Salvator Mile if he’s at anywhere close to his best.

Last year’s Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes runner-up most recently came in second in the Dubai World Cup. This race certainly isn’t the goal, but he’s been tackling top-tier competition for his entire career. I don’t think he needs a top-tier race to best this bunch.

The $13.50 late Pick Four ticket

R11: 1, 5, 6
R12: 2, 3, 8
R13: 3, 5, 6
R14: 3

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Andrew Champagne

Andrew Champagne is a Content Manager at Catena Media, as well as an award-winning horse racing writer and handicapper. Originally from upstate New York, he now resides in Concord, California. Follow him on Twitter at @AndrewChampagne.

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