The road to the Kentucky Derby takes us to New Orleans this weekend. Fair Grounds will host the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes, which doubles as a step up in potential Derby points. The winning horse will earn 50 and all but assure a spot in the Churchill Downs starting gate on the first Saturday in May.
Recent winners have included several well-known thoroughbreds. Eventual Breeders’ Cup Classic winners Mucho Macho Man and Gun Runner won in 2011 and 2016, as did War of Will, who would win the 2019 Preakness Stakes just a few months later. Who will join this distinguished group, and how does that influence our betting strategies? Let’s take a look.
Smile Happy looks to be a worthy favorite
The 10-horse field is led by No. 8 Smile Happy, who went 2-for-2 as a 2-year-old and makes his 2022 debut. After breaking his maiden going two turns at Keeneland (never an easy thing to do), he stepped up with aplomb to win the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club. In doing so, he topped an outstanding field that included Classic Causeway and White Abarrio. The former went on to win the Sam F. Davis, while the latter romped in the Holy Bull.
There just aren’t many things to nitpick here. Smile Happy has won both of his starts by daylight, and he’s done so professionally. He has tactical speed, but he doesn’t need the lead to run well. For him to lose, he would need to regress, and one of his opponents likely would need to fire a career-best shot. I simply don’t think that scenario will unfold here.
OK, so how do we make money?
Smile Happy is currently 7-2 on the morning line, but I think those odds are coming down a bit. With that, what I’d suggest is looking at vertical exotics bets and figuring out which horses may run second and/or third.
No. 5 Epicenter did all of the legwork in the Grade 3 Lecomte. He went to the front, led for nearly the entire race and got nailed by Call Me Midnight. It was a tough beat for those who needed him that day, but there’s plenty to like off of that effort. While there’s some early speed signed on here, Epicenter should get a more agreeable race shape. That would help his chances considerably.
No. 7 Zandon, meanwhile, ran Mo Donegal to a nose in the Grade 2 Remsen at Aqueduct. That track has one of the quirkiest surfaces in the country, but Mo Donegal did come back to run well behind White Abarrio in the Holy Bull. In addition, he’s been working consistently for world-class horseman Chad Brown at Payson Park, and he figures to be sitting an ideal stalking trip just off the pace.
Betting strategies for the Risen Star
I’ll use exactas and trifectas to try to extract value out of Smile Happy. If the Kentucky Derby was being run now, he’d almost certainly be favored. I think he lives up to the billing in this spot.
- $10 exactas: 8 with 5,7 ($20)
- $5 trifectas: 8 with 5, 7 with 5, 7 ($10, $30)
