Skeptics have spoken — and they certainly should — about the 2022 Kentucky Derby contender rankings. It’s a guessing game at this time of year — something reflected in the race’s futures betting pool, which closed a few days ago.
The first Saturday in May is about 12 weeks away, and the pari-mutuel field of “All Other 3-Year-Olds” closed as the 2-1 favorite in Pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager.
Who is leading the pack? It depends on who you ask
By all accounts a strong horse, Smile Happy was the 8-1 second betting choice, although skeptics suggest those odds reflect the horse’s backing by well-known horseplayer Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale. McIngvale owns Smile Happy’s sire, Run Happy. The esteemed Grade 1 champion sprinter has his name pasted just about everywhere at tracks and TV coverage nationwide.
Typically, “all others” and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champion (sidelined horse Corniche) are the favorites until some colt gives a “wow” performance in the Derby Preps.
With trainer Bob Baffert and his horses currently ineligible for this year’s Kentucky Derby — stemming from the failed post-race drug test of Medina Spirit last year — the public has little conviction on betting any one horse at this stage.
The Kentucky Derby uses a points-based qualifying system, and several prep races are in the books. The more valuable races begin with Saturday’s 50-point Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds.
Last Saturday’s Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes’ winner, Classic Causeway, currently tops the standings board with 16 points.
This week’s Derby Dozen
Here’s a look at the horses we think are contenders for the Derby, ranked. Their change in position from the prior week is in parenthesis.
- (+1) Smile Happy (Kenny McPeek): Last week’s top-ranked horse Rattle N Roll’s stablemate, Smile Happy is the morning line favorite in Saturday’s G2 Risen Star Stakes. “He had a smooth winter,” McPeek told DRF. “These next two starts are more fitness for us than anything.”
- (+1) Zandon (Chad Brown): His next test is in Saturday’s Risen Star. He’s the only horse in the field to have gone nine furlongs, taking second to Mo Donegal in the Remsen.
- (+1) White Abarrio (Saffie Joseph Jr.): He’ll stay in Florida for his next go, the Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream on April 2.
- (NR) Classic Causeway (Brian Lynch): He showed why he’s better left to keep his foot on the gas, flashing great speed in winning the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. “It was a great effort. He showed up today,” Lynch said in a TVG interview. “We always hoped that he was of this quality, and (in) his first start of his 3-year-old year, he took the step he needed to keep the dream alive.” Next up should be on the same track at the Tampa Bay Derby on March 12.
- (NC) Early Voting (Brown): Be mindful that his dominant 4.5-length, wire-to-wire showing in The Withers was run on an off-track and some horses quit down the stretch. We need to see another race from him.
- (NC) Slow Down Andy (Doug O’Neill): Part of the solid 10-horse field in the Risen Star, here’s his chance to show his win in the Los Al Futurity (G2) was legit. He benefited by laying back as other jockeys ganged up on the favored Messier.
- (NC) Moe Donegal (Todd Pletcher): The Grade 2 Wood Memorial on April 9 could be next, trainer Todd Pletcher told Thoroughbred Daily News. Moe Donegal won the G2 Remsen at Aqueduct and rallied well to place third in the Holy Bull.
- (NC) Epicenter (Steve Asmussen): He’s expected to be the early speed Saturday in the Risen Star.
- (-8) Rattle N Roll (McPeek): Some racing analysts question whether Rattle N Roll should even be in the rankings. They suggest that the horse’s best argument is that we haven’t seen him run in a while. They are unsure when he’ll next get in the gate (maybe March 12 in the Tampa Bay Derby?). RnR won the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland in October.
- (-1) Simplification (Antonio Sano): His eyes are on G2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream on March 5.
- (-1) Pappacap (Mark Casse): On Saturday, he gets a new rider in Tyler Gafflione for the Risen Star.
- (NC) Emmanuel (Pletcher): He continues to stay in the conversation as analysts await his next start. “I’m very pleased with the way he handled the two turns,” Pletcher said via text message to the Paulick Report. “We will keep all options open for his next start.” That could be the Tampa Bay Derby on March 12.
