Betting Strategies: Classic Causeway Looms Large In The Sam F. Davis

Written By Andrew Champagne on February 11, 2022 - Last Updated on February 28, 2022

For the second weekend in a row, the Road to the Kentucky Derby takes us to Florida. This time, we’ll head to Tampa Bay Downs for the Sam F. Davis, which also serves as a prep for the meet’s biggest race, next month’s Tampa Bay Derby.

First run in 1981, the Sam F. Davis has emerged as a starting spot for some serious Derby hopefuls. The past several years have seen winners like Flameaway, McCraken and Destin, among others, and those were some of the better 3-year-olds of their crops.

This year’s renewal has attracted a full field of 12. Let’s take a look.

Classic Causeway is a worthy favorite

No. 3 Classic Causeway is the 3-1 morning line choice, and he hasn’t run a bad race to this point in his career. He debuted with an electric 6 1/2-length victory at Saratoga and followed it up by hitting the board in both the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity and Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club.

He’s been off since late November, but the consistent work tab since the start of the new year is a definite plus. He’s shown that two turns won’t be a problem, and Irad Ortiz Jr. has seen fit to make the short trip in from Gulfstream Park. I think he’s absolutely the horse to beat and that the 3-1 odds actually represent an overlay.

Any attractive alternatives?

If you’re playing vertical exotics, there are three other runners I’d consider underneath. No. 8 Shipsational tries two turns for the first time, but he’s won three of four starts and has a pedigree that hints this route won’t be a problem. While he went wire-to-wire to top New York breds in the Sleepy Hollow, he’s shown an ability to rate off the pace as well. That should help him here, and he could sit an ideal stalking trip.

Another logical contender is No. 11 Strike Hard, who chased Simplification home in the Mucho Macho Man. That horse proceeded to run second in the Holy Bull last weekend behind the talented White Abarrio. Toss this one’s clunker in the Grade 3 Iroquois, where he was green and wide throughout, and his record looks far better.

If you’re seeking a bigger price, No. 5 God of Love is intriguing. His races have all come up north at Woodbine, but he rallied strongly to win the Grade 3 Grey in November and seems to have developed well in Florida. Sire Cupid got better with distance, and this Mark Casse trainee has the right running style for a race that seems heavy on early speed. The faster they go early, the better this late runner’s chances figure to be.

Betting strategies for the Sam F. Davis

I think Classic Causeway has a lot of potential, and I’ll bet accordingly. In addition to a win bet on him, I’ll play exactas that key him above the other three horses I’ve mentioned.

  • $15 win: 3 ($15)
  • $3 exactas: 3 with 5, 8, 11 ($9, $24)
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Andrew Champagne

Andrew Champagne is a Content Manager at Catena Media, as well as an award-winning horse racing writer and handicapper. Originally from upstate New York, he now resides in Concord, California. Follow him on Twitter at @AndrewChampagne.

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