On The Road To The Kentucky Derby, Long Shots Upset The Rebel Stakes

It was not a good weekend for those horseplayers who invest in betting chalk at the track.

For those who genuinely gamble by swinging for the fences or who even pick horses based on their colors, you probably did much better. Two prominent races — including one Kentucky Derby prep — paid beyond handsomely on Saturday.

Emblem Road shakes up the Saudi Cup at 99-1 odds

Emblem Road rallied with a wide, sweeping move on the outside to win the $20 million Saudi Cup at 99-1 odds on Saturday, beating Bob Baffert-trained Country Grammar by a half-length in a true “fingernails-on-the-chalk-board” kind of result for many.

Ridden by Wiggy Ramos, Emblem Road ran 1 1/8 miles in 1:50.52 in the world’s richest horse race at King Abdulaziz Racecourse in Riyadh.

US-bred Emblem Road has seven wins in nine career starts. His sire, Quality Road, was a standout who won the Florida Derby and other Grade 1 races in the US Emblem Road earned $10 million for the win. Geez. How did he go off at 99-1? (Of note: Another Quality Road offspring, Glider, runs in Saturday’s Grade 3 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct for Mark Casse).

The Saudi Cup, which welcomes horses age 4 and older, is not a Derby prep.

Another upset served up by Un Ojo at the Rebel Stakes

In the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn — with 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points going to the winner — Un Ojo was the unlikely winner at 75-1 as race fans there shivered while looking on.

Jockey Ramon Vazquez saved ground along the rail while stalking fractions of 23.42, 48.86 and 1:14.30 for six furlongs set by Kavod as odds-on favorite Newgrange pressed the pace.

As the field turned into the stretch, the one-eyed Un Ojo momentarily looked to be losing ground, but the New York-bred rallied in midstretch to earn his first stakes win.

Un Ojo completed 1 1/16 miles in 1:45.69, which was about a second slower than Secret Oath’s win in the Honeybee (G3) earlier on the card. The gelding earned 50 qualifying points, which should be enough to make the starting gate on May 7.

Ethereal Road, a stablemate of Secret Oath for trainer D. Wayne Lukas, received 20 points for second. Barber Road followed (10 points) with Kavod (5) in fourth.

Earlier in the day, the chalk came through for the 86-year-old Hall of Fame trainer Lukas, who scored in a Kentucky Oaks prep, the Grade 3 Honeybee Stakes at Oaklawn. She earned 50 points toward eligibility in the Kentucky Oaks, to run May 6 at Churchill Downs.

It also came through for Letruska, a Breeders Cup champion who dominated as so much the favorite, it paid $2.20 to win Saturday’s Grade 3 Royal Delta Stakes at Gulfstream Park at odds of 1-9.

For those placing bets on Emblem Road and Un Ojo, take your winnings, feel satisfied and maybe come back next year while others try to recover.

It was a mostly quiet week for the standing Derby Dozen — only trainer Steve Asmussen’s No. 12 Chasing Time ran in the Rebel, placing sixth, one spot ahead of the heavy favorite, Baffert-trained Newgrange.

Many on our list continue to look to the upcoming four “50-point win” preps. Saturday includes the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes Day at Gulfstream and the Grade 2 San Felipe at Santa Anita as part of a fantastic coast-to-coast “First Saturday in March” card at these tracks, which will combine to run 15 stakes races (nine at Gulfstream).

Aqueduct also is hosting the Grade 3 Gotham on Saturday in a Derby prep. Then, on March 12, the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby Day is at Tampa Bay Downs.

The Derby Dozen, week 4

The prospects for the Kentucky Derby remained unchanged overall, with the exception of Un Ojo, who ran away with a W at the Rebel Stakes.

(No Change) Epicenter (trainer Steve Asmussen): His win in the Risen Star clinched him a spot in the Kentucky Derby. Epicenter broke his maiden at Churchill Downs over a mile, so he has valuable experience of the track surface. Epicenter will run his final prep for the Derby in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on March 26, back at Fair Grounds, where he is already two-for-three.
(NC) Smile Happy (Kenny McPeek): McPeek said Friday that Smile Happy is a prime prospect for the Florida Derby (G1) on April 2 at Gulfstream Park. “I’m going to try and keep him and [Rattle N Roll] separated because they have the same owner,” he said. “You’ll see one in the Blue Grass and one in the Florida Derby following the Fountain of Youth.”
(NC) Zandon (Chad Brown): Zandon’s last three Beyer Speed Figures are competitive and moving in the right direction (80, 90, 93). Look for him next at the Blue Grass Stakes on April 9 at Keeneland.
(NC) White Abarrio (Saffie Joseph Jr.): Expect to see him next at the Florida Derby. White Abarrio was a $7,500 purchase and has already earned $186,850.
(NC) Classic Causeway (Brian Lynch): Classic Causeway worked four furlongs in 48.5 at Palm Meadows Training Center on Saturday. It was the 25th fastest of 120 works at the distance in his first work since his last race, a win Feb. 12 in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis. His next projected race is March 12 in the Tampa Bay Derby.
(NC) Mo Donegal (Todd Pletcher): Pletcher said the 100-point, Grade 2 Wood Memorial on April 9 is Mo Donegal’s next start. Pletcher spaces his horses quite deliberately, so Mo Donegal must perform well at the Wood. Otherwise, he won’t make the Kentucky Derby because of the timing.
(NC) Early Voting (Brown): Potentially needs a prep before April to get ready.
(NC) Rattle N Roll (McPeek): Grade 1 winner Rattle N Roll worked Saturday at Gulfstream Park, breezing five furlongs in a sharp 58.6 seconds for second-fastest out of 41 works at the distance. He is slated for Saturday’s Fountain of Youth Stakes.
(NC) Emmanuel (Pletcher): Emmanuel is heading to the Fountain of Youth as well.
(NC) Simplification (Antonio Sano): Simplification will have a new rider when he goes post-ward among the favorites in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park. Sano confirmed Ortiz would replace Simplification’s regular rider, Javier Castellano. The horse breezed an easy five furlongs from the half-mile pole in 1:02.60 last week.
(NC) In Due Time (Kelly Breen): His Beyer Speed Figure of 92 is among the fastest at a mile by any 3-year-old in the country this year. His first two starts had both come at sprint distances. The Kentucky Derby goes a mile and a quarter.
(NR) Un Ojo (Ricky Courville): Got a near-perfect trip in what turned out to be a lackluster Rebel Stakes, earning a weak 84 Beyer figure. However, that win puts him in the gate for the Derby. A repeat effort probably wouldn’t put him among the top 12 finishers. The Rebel was Courville’s first graded stakes win since he took out his license in 2008.