Betting Strategies: Handicapping Saturday’s All-Stakes Pick Four At Tampa Bay Downs

Written By Andrew Champagne on March 12, 2022 - Last Updated on March 28, 2022
jockeys riding horses on a track

It’s not a hot take to say that Saturday’s card at Tampa Bay Downs may be the best one in the track’s history. The Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby headlines a 12-race program and offers 50 Kentucky Derby points to the winner. That race is one of five graded stakes on the card, and it ends an all-stakes Pick Four sequence.

That wager begins in the eighth, and I’ll attack it with a $13.50 ticket. Here’s how I’ve put it together.

Pick Four kicks off with a challenging Challenger

The Grade 3 Challenger has drawn a field of 10 older horses, including some familiar faces. No. 3 Greatest Honour won a pair of Kentucky Derby preps a season ago and was 4/5 in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. No. 4 Dynamic One, meanwhile, ran in Kentucky last May and also contested the Grade 1 Travers at Saratoga.

I’m using those two, but neither of those runners is my top pick.

I prefer No. 9 Cody’s Wish on top. He’s had plenty of potential from the jump and finally figured things out last fall when he won three straight races at Churchill Downs. His speed figures are strong, and while this is just his second career start around two turns, his pedigree says he’ll love that journey. Add in that Luis Saez has landed here when he almost certainly had some options, and I think there’s plenty to like.

A single in the Florida Oaks

The first of two strong stances I’ll take comes in the Grade 3 Florida Oaks. Simply put, I don’t think the 3-year-old turf fillies at Gulfstream are very strong. I want a fresh face, and one of those is the only runner I’m using.

No. 3 Dolce Zel makes her American debut for trainer Chad Brown, who’s hitting at an eye-popping 45% clip this meet. She broke her maiden at Longchamp last fall, and she’ll add Lasix in her first stateside start. That often leads to big leaps forward for European shippers, and I love the big workout she posted last week at Payson Park. We won’t get the 5-1 morning line price given the connections, but 5-2 or 3-1 would hit me as fair.

No clue in the Columbia

As you can probably guess by the subheading, I have no idea what to make of the Columbia. Nine 3-year-olds will go a mile on the turf, and it’s tough to find anything that resembles a standout. With several class-jumpers coming up to run against a few horses that have struggled at this level, it’s perplexing, to say the least.

Thanks to my ticket structure, though, I don’t have to whittle this down. I’m hitting the “ALL” button and hoping for a price ahead of the day’s main event.

Not getting cute in the feature

I previewed the Tampa Bay Derby earlier this week, and I simply can’t get past No. 4 Classic Causeway. I think he’s the best of a very good group that’s set to go postward, and I’m betting accordingly. He’s the second single on this ticket. As I said in my earlier preview, if he doesn’t win, I lose.

The $13.50 Pick Four ticket

R8: 3, 4, 9
R9: 3
R10: ALL
R11: 4

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Andrew Champagne

Andrew Champagne is a Content Manager at Catena Media, as well as an award-winning horse racing writer and handicapper. Originally from upstate New York, he now resides in Concord, California. Follow him on Twitter at @AndrewChampagne.

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