It’s not the Big Easy for handicappers, but the pendulum of elegance in the horse-racing industry shifts to Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans on Saturday.
Is it a “Fecta-cular?” Indeed.
Embracing recent tradition, Fair Grounds will corner the gambling market and captivate the industry with a series of excellent races.
The big one, the $1 million Louisiana Derby at 6:44 p.m. EDT, is well known to our audience. But there is an additional string of enticing, highly bettable races stretching from 3:02 p.m. EDT to the main event. Nationwide bettors accessing the action via TVG can set their handicap compass to this package, composed of a couple of themes.
Saturday’s race lineup at Fair Grounds
3:02 p.m.: A $75,000 race with a 12-horse field. Good chance for prices for spread bettors, who like to stalk trifecta and superfecta payoffs.
Bettors can obtain a lot of bang for 12 bucks with the superfecta key by placing their favorite horse in the first and second finishing position with five other horses. The combo must produce the top four finishers.
3:33 p.m.: A $75,000 race. Twelve entries. Same standard.
4:05 p.m.: Apply the same formula to a $65,000 12-horse race.
4:37 p.m.: The $100,000 Tom Benson event has nine horses. A good mix for win and exacta payoffs too.
Want to focus on a win bet and possibly slam it? Or take a heavy wager on one exacta combination? That’s next.
5:08 p.m.: The $500,000 New Orleans Classic offers that opportunity. Exotics payouts figure to be small among this field of six. Taking a stand in the win bet means facing fewer competitors: better chance to win, less money. Fair trade.
5:40 p.m.: The Muniz Memorial Classic offers a $300,000 purse with a field of nine. It’s a happy medium between the win line and exotics.
6:12 p.m.: The Fair Grounds Oaks carries a field of six and a $400,000 purse. Same betting approach as the New Orleans Classic. Slam it if you like it.
And at 6:44 p.m., it’s the big one. The Louisiana Derby is not only a high-profile race impacting the Kentucky Derby, but also, it has an interesting handicapping puzzle.
This race is a 100-point Kentucky Derby qualifier. It’s the longest distance — 1 3/16 miles — of any prep race. The winner will be highly regarded going into the May 7 Run for the Roses because he’ll have the shortest distance to stretch for the 1 1/4 mile Derby.
A look at the 2021 Louisiana Derby
The 2021 Louisiana Derby had a profound, seasonlong impact on the national thoroughbred racing circuit.
Its winner, Hot Rod Charlie, finished third in the Kentucky Derby, second in the Belmont Stakes, won the Haskell (before being disqualified for clipping heels with Midnight Bourbon), captured the Pennsylvania Derby, and was fourth in the Breeders Cup. Hot Rod Charlie became one of America’s most popular horses last year.
Midnight Bourbon, second in the Louisiana Derby, ran second in the Preakness Stakes and was the horse Hot Rod Charlie fouled in the Haskell, resulting in his disqualification.
O Besos, third in the Louisiana Derby, ran fifth in the Kentucky Derby.
How about Mandaloun? He finished a badly beaten sixth at the Louisiana Derby. He then went off 26-1 in the Kentucky Derby and ran the race of his life. After the Medina Spirit’s disqualification for a failed drug test, he’s the 2021 Kentucky Derby champion.
Putting the pieces together for this year’s race
It’s a compelling rematch and intriguing handicapping puzzle.
Epicenter figures to get to the lead, listed as the 7-5 favorite. Call Me Midnight practically came from Texas to nip him at the wire in the 1 1/6-mile Lecomte Stakes in January at the New Orleans facility. Since that race, Epicenter stretched out to 1 1/8 miles and triumphed in the Risen Star Stakes in February. That’s a factor in his favor.
The pair seems like a natural exacta box bet, but trying to unseat that logic is Zozos. He is moving well up in class, guided by Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox, and has gone 3-for-3 with attitude. As a result, he could be placed in a stalking position.
Bettors will carefully eye the late wagering board. Pari-mutuel regulations determine that no betting odds are official until post time. Bettors may perceive that Epicenter is rapidly improving and slam his odds down into the even-money range. That could become a problem in the win-line bet. Straight exactas, exacta boxes, or a trifecta key, with long shots attached, may end up where the money is with him.
Other interesting choices
The 3:33 p.m. race, the Costa Rising Stakes, features a rematch between favored X Clown and Classy John, who beat him in this event last year. X Clown hasn’t run since, while Classy John has run four times. Bertie’s Galaxy also has been forwardly placed in recent races.
Weekend stakes races around the country
Oaklawn — $150,000 Purple Martin
Santa Anita — $125,000 Santa Ana Stakes
Turfway Park — $100,000 Serena’s Song
Mark your calendars for the week ahead
The Gulfstream Park Championship Meet concludes with a compelling menu April 2-3.
On Saturday, the $1 million Florida Derby posts; a prelude to the Kentucky Derby. Then, one day later, it’s the mandatory payout of the Rainbow Pick 6. Highlighted by Saturday wagering on the Florida Derby, this could have a pool anywhere from $3-5 million, provided the jackpot is not hit beforehand, which is rare.
All carryover pools will be paid out on Sunday, April 3, on the final day of the Championship Meet.
Bombs Away: Salute to Long Shots
Yes, they can encompass the spirit of the long shot dream. And they are one of our favorite parts of the game.
Oaklawn produced a double-dynamite dose last week. The running style of these races produced a nugget about how some bettors could get lucky and back into a Bombs-Away Bundle.
It was the fifth race last Saturday.
Press Snooze prevailed at 31-1, rallying from deep midpack.
Futile was second at 6-1, coming from dead last.
Petit Verdot, third at 12-1, also rallied.
Mr. Ankeny, fourth at 12-1, gave up the lead in the stretch and was fortunate to hold fourth.
What a long shot luxury pack!
A $2 exacta box paid $489. The $1 trifecta returned $2,310. The $2 superfecta was almost telephone numbers, $23,572. That means the 10-cent superfecta wager many gamblers play returned $2,357.
Why it paid: Jack Van Berg, the 4-5 shot, ran out of the money. It looked like a freak development before comparing it with other races at the track that day. Early speed was faltering. Jack Van Berg and Mr. Ankeny had the lead going for home. Unfortunately, they both faded badly, and Jack Van Berg essentially stopped racing around the turn.
The same thing happened in race 3.
Northern Woods came from a stalking position to win at 10-1.
Lochmoor closed from far back for second at 13-1.
Mammoth Spring was third at 12-1.
Braska completed the superfecta at 4-1.
The $1 trifecta paid $1,809. The $2 superfecta returned $16,501, meaning the 10-center was worth $1,650.
Why it paid: The setup was there. No short-priced favorites. Big field. One might have gotten this with a stab.
What the day revealed: The track was tiring and the front-runners gave way.
Only once in 10 races did the horse who got to the front win. This impacted the big trifecta and superfecta payouts. It also had a hand in the feature Essex Stakes, in which Rated R Superstar rumbled home from the back of the pack at 9-1.
Playing closers is often risky. If the speed horses get a relaxed pace, there’s very little chance to rally. But Oaklawn ran to a closers pattern last Saturday.
Check it on other days.
To get a handle on running style, you can find a Daily Racing Form or obtain one online either at DRF.com or via TVG.
Good luck finding your Bombs Away collection.
