Despite Rainy Conditions, The Kentucky Oaks Looks To Outshine The Derby

Written By Gerard Apadula on May 3, 2022 - Last Updated on May 30, 2022
Kentucky Oaks

Although the Kentucky Derby lineup lacks a strong favorite, the crop of three-year-old fillies showing out for The Kentucky Oaks on Friday is among the strongest I’ve seen in all my 42 years in the sport. This makes me think the 2022 Kentucky Oaks is going to be an absolute barnburner.

A look at the fillies of the 2022 Kentucky Oaks

Let’s start with 2022 points leader Kathleen O., who is unbeaten in four tries. This dark bay filly caught my attention in her debut last year on a muddy Aqueduct surface. Last in a field of seven, she came with a brazen five or six wide rally while circling the entire field and got up to win by a head. Her effort was much better than it looked, as the Aqueduct surface habitually favors runners in the lead or close to it.

Trainer Shug McGaughey, who had his fair share of star fillies in Inside Information, Heavenly Prize and, of course, the 13 for 13 “perfect” Personal Ensign, quickly whisked her off to Florida and gave her nearly two months off. He brought her back in January and won three consecutive races, all while coming from well behind and with each assignment being a little more difficult than the prior one in yet another superb training job. This filly should be peaking come Oaks day.

Next on the list is 2021 two-year-old champion filly Echo Zulu, who was unbeaten and untested last year while winning all four starts, including three Grade: 1s, by a combined margin of 22 lengths. This speedster by record-breaking sire Gun Runner’s 2022 debut race, although she won by just a nose, was as impressive as anything she did last year.

Making her first start in 19 weeks in the Fair Grounds Oaks, at two turns, no less, this bay filly had things her own way as she cruised along in the lead. However, her almost-five-month layoff began to rear its ugly head, as she was clearly tiring as she kicked past the eighth pole.

Enter the improving Hidden Connection, who loomed boldly at that point and was making a serious late run. Echo Zulu, who was running on pure guts alone, would not be denied. She fended off Hidden Connection by the narrowest of margins, and the second she hit the wire, she pricked up her ears as if to say “Just kidding, I had it the whole time.”

Trainer Todd Pletcher’s Nest is worth a look

Third on the list is the improving in leaps and bounds Nest, a winner of four of five career starts, including the Ashland Stakes at Keeneland on April 8. She is another horse who is the recipient of an excellent training job by four-time Kentucky Oaks winner Todd Pletcher. Like Kathleen O., Nest turned some heads, including mine, while coming from behind to win the Demoiselle at Aqueduct on December 4. Then, given two-plus months off, she was brought back with a win at Tampa Bay Downs before heading to Keeneland and taking the Ashland.

The daughter of Curlin (out of an A.P. Indy mare) is bred to run to Antarctica and back, so the Kentucky Oaks distance should hit this big, long-striding filly squarely between the eyes.

Moreover, it should be noted that she has won at Belmont Park, Aqueduct, Tampa Bay Downs and Keeneland, signaling that she “takes her track with her wherever she goes,” meaning she can run on any surface. This is an enormous advantage because, as I stated earlier, the Churchill Downs surface is notoriously quirky. I can tell you now, she will surely be on some of my betting tickets come Friday.

Fourth on the list is Yuugiri. After hitting the board in several qualifying races, she finally broke through and took down the Fantasy Stakes on April 2. It’s possible she could be peaking at the right time.

Skipping down to No. 8 on the list is Secret Oath, who was so dominant against her peers that her connections put her in against males in the Arkansas Derby, and from what I saw, she was only a misjudged ride away from winning that day.

By the late, great Arrogate, the liver chestnut won the Martha Washington by 7 1/2 lengths and the Honeybee Stakes by the same margin to start her year. Bet down to 7-5 favoritism, she was bumped soundly at the break and was last leaving the (first) half-mile pole. From that point, this filly put in nothing short of a breathtaking, five- or six-wide sustained run toward the lead. The run was reminiscent of the great Beholder in the 2016 Pacific Classic. However, at the midstretch marker, she understandably began to tire and checked in third. It made me wonder: If the rider had saved more ground and waited to “pull the trigger” on her electrifying late run, would the results have been different? Could she have beaten the males? I think it was possible.

What about 2022 Gazelle Stakes winner Nostalgic? She may not be considered among the elite contenders. However, she does have a win at 1 1/8 miles, which is something that none of the aforementioned horses have. “The thing is, a mile and an eighth at Churchill with a fast pace is a pretty difficult trip for some if they don’t want to get the distance,” Bill Mott, trainer of Nostalgic, said. “I don’t think that’s any problem for our girl.” Excellent point, Mr. Mott.

I doubt the Kentucky Oaks will ever overtake the Kentucky Derby, it hasn’t yet in 147, going on 148, years. But with so many questions from what might be an average crop of three-year-old males and with four or more possible superstar females, I’m curious — is it possible that just once, just one time, this year, the Oaks will steal the spotlight?

We’ll see.

Photo by AP | Darron Cummings
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