We are not looking at just any Saturday Fecta-cular.
It’s not even just an exceptional Saturday card.
It is one of the best Saturdays of the entire 2022 season.
Nationwide bettors can access the Derby prep races and a menu for the ages on TVG, in which they can experience top-level racing and form their notebooks for the May 7 Kentucky Derby.
An overview of the final Kentucky Derby prep races
The last three prep races to The Run for the Roses headline the day. They unfold in the 4:30-6 p.m. time slot (EDT) and are nationally televised by NBC.
In order:
- $750,000 Wood Memorial from Aqueduct Race Track in New York.
- $1 million Blue Grass from Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, KY.
- $750,000 Santa Anita Derby from Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, CA.
All three races are 1 1/8 miles.
Why these events matter
These races are the final Derby preps to award 100-40-20-10 points to the top four finishers. Horses finishing at least second in these races will reach the Derby.
Trainers who gave their horses a layoff after a big effort a couple of months back are now in a position where they must place well or else. That means Messier in the Santa Anita Derby, Early Voting in the Wood and most of the field in the Blue Grass must take advantage of their last shot.
Bettors can take the top finishers in these races and combine them with recent prep winners like White Abarrio in the Florida Derby, Cyberknife in the Arkansas Derby, Tiz the Bomb in the Jeff Ruby and Epicenter in the Louisiana Derby to devise a list of contenders for the Kentucky Derby.
Charge It, who was second in the Florida Derby, also makes the Derby contenders list. So does Barber Road, second in the Arkansas Derby.
An interesting stat comes from the group of races that will determine the remaining starters: The horses who notched the top Beyer Speed rating of 103 in 2022 meet in the same Derby prep race. That’s Messier and Taiba going head to head in the Santa Anita Derby. How’s that for a surprise?
As you’d expect, each track with the big races rolled out the green carpet with a tremendous card to try cornering the gambling market.
Let’s look.
Keeneland
What a wager wonderland.
The Keeneland meet opens Friday and delivers a terrific blockbuster Saturday card.
This one is so good that every event in the 11-race program has a six-figure purse, and the Blue Grass is the industry’s lone $1 million race on this day.
It starts at 12:30 p.m. EDT and goes for six, count ’em, six hours.
Many of the races have 12-horse fields with no clear-cut favorites. As a result, it may be challenging to select a winner, but there are opportunities galore with 50-cent trifecta boxes, 10-cent superfecta boxes and 10 or 20-cent superfecta keys.
There will also be excellent prices on the win line if you can hone in on that.
Some of the big races include:
- $300,000 Commonwealth Stakes
- $400,000 Turf Application Stakes
- $500,000 Madison Handicap
- $350,000 Shakertown Stakes
- And, of course, the $1 million Blue Grass
After the main event, there are two 12-horse fields, completing an unbelievable wagering day.
This card is so packed, besides the anchoring concept for big races, because the Keeneland meet runs April 8-29. It’s a unique, isolated mini-meet, much along the lines of what the Saratoga Race Course was until it slowly extended its summer campaign to bridge the middle of July with Labor Day.
Keeneland has the most races on Saturday, but the other tracks hosting the Derby preps are also packed.
Aqueduct
Aqueduct has a nice five-pack.
- $100,000 Danger’s Hour unfolds at 4:11 p.m.
- 750,000 Wood Memorial is next at 4:45 p.m.
- $300,000 Carter Handicap follows at 5:21 p.m.
- $250,000 Gazelle is at 5:55 p.m.
- $200,000 Bayshore goes off at 6:29 p.m.
This is a 10-horse field headlined by some horses that have been beaten in previous stakes races facing up-and-comers. Excellent betting mix, possible prices.
That’s about as packed bettors will ever see in a five-race package from Aqueduct.
Santa Anita
Santa Anita offers a three-hour window of six-figure races with unique betting variables. Some have five-horse fields. That makes handicapping easier and may reduce betting to a win wager or one exacta box slam.
The racecard:
- $200,000 Monrovia occurs at 3 p.m.
- Then comes the $150,000 Echo Eddie Stakes at 3:30.
- The $400,000 Santa Anita Stakes follows at 4:30 p.m. and has five horses.
- It’s followed by the $100,000 Providencia,which occurs at 5 p.m.
- The $750,000 Santa Anita Derby comes next at 5:30 p.m.
- Winding down the card is the $200,000 Royal Heroine at 6:17 p.m. with a five-horse field.
The charm of the Road to the Derby
Bettors get to see horses evolve, advance and flatten out before the Kentucky Derby. Here are some of the major stories.
Un Ojo was second in the Withers in New York in February and then qualified for the Derby by winning the Rebel Stakes at 75-1.
Classic Causeway captured two races in Tampa and tried to step into the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park. But unfortunately, it’s usually too big a leap. And it was again, as he ran out of the money and was eliminated as a major Derby threat.
Cyberknife ran a distant sixth in the Lecomte, an early-season prep race. However, he improved significantly and captured the Arkansas Derby, beating 6-5 favorite Secret Oath. It was another testament that three-year-old thoroughbreds are continually evolving.
Something to watch in each Derby prep race
The Wood Memorial features Early Voting, who won the Withers but hasn’t raced in two months. He goes against favored Morello, who has a 96 Beyer Speed Figure, the highest in the field. Mo Donegal is another favorite.
The Blue Grass is a last-chance dance for Derby hopefuls.
They include:
- Zandon, who was nipped at the wire by Mo Donegal in the Remsen.
- Ethereal Road, who just missed as a long shot in the Rebel.
- Rattle N Roll, who has failed in many chances after a strong fall campaign.
- Smile Happy, who was second to potential Kentucky Derby favorite Epicenter in the Risen Star Stakes.
Horses who finish first and second in this race will qualify for the Derby, and they need it. So perhaps this could be renamed the Desperado Stakes.
The Santa Anita Derby is considered a match race between Messier and Forbidden Kingdom, with the wild card being Taiba’s ability to stretch from six furlongs to 1 1-8 miles.
Bombs Away, Salute to Long Shots
We find them all over the place. And last week, it came right on the heels of the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn.
It was in race 13. The fertile breeding grounds we always talk about were there via the 13-horse field. There were three horses across the track at the wire, just nudging the 2-1 shot, who finished fourth. And it paid well as a result.
Twisted Dixie captured the race at 15-1 with a late surge. Good Night Archie was second at 9-1, completing a $375 exacta. Third went to Blame JD at 10-1, rounding out a $1 trifecta worth $3,205.
Ima Bling Cat, the 2-1 favorite, was fourth and completed the Bling Ching for a $2 superfecta worth $30,572. The $ 1 super was $15,286, and the 10-center was $1,528.
Good luck finding your profit zone on Saturday.
