Major Kentucky Derby preps start Saturday afternoon with the Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds. The winners of these races receive 100 Kentucky Derby points, while runners-up receive 40 points. Both totals all but guarantee runners spots in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May.
The Louisiana Derby has drawn a field of nine runners, including one of the country’s top Kentucky Derby prospects. Let’s take a look.
Epicenter may be a worthy favorite, but …
No. 6 Epicenter wired the field in the Grade 2 Risen Star, which came after a tough-luck second in the Grade 3 Lecomte. He’s since fired two bullet workouts over this track for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, and talent-wise, he’s absolutely the horse to beat.
However, he may not be alone on the front end. No. 2 Zozos and No. 7 Pioneer of Medina both have legitimate early speed. That could mean Epicenter will have to work a little harder to work out his preferred trip.
I won’t be surprised if Epicenter wins, but in trying to maximize value, I’ll look elsewhere for my key horses.
Setting things up for closers
I’ll gamble that Epicenter will have some starch taken out of him early and that the race shape is set up for those doing their best running late. With that in mind, I’ll key No. 3 Call Me Midnight and No. 9 Rattle N Roll on top.
The former topped Epicenter in the Lecomte. In doing so, he pulled off a 28-1 upset, and I don’t think we’ll get that kind of price again. Call Me Midnight has worked very well coming into this event, and I think he could absolutely win this with the right setup.
The latter, meanwhile, ran like a horse who needed a race in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth. Rattle N Roll was sixth that day, but it was his first start in nearly five months. He comes back pretty quickly for this event, and his recent bullet drill inspires confidence. If he can channel the form he showed as a 2-year-old, I think he could be a handful here.
Betting strategies for the Louisiana Derby
I’ll key Call Me Midnight and Rattle N Roll on top of exactas as my main play. Epicenter and the undefeated Zozos will be my underneath horses. Additionally, I’ll play smaller “saver” exactas boxing Epicenter with my top two picks. Ultimately, if Epicenter runs well but finishes second to a closer, I’ll be rewarded with a nice chunk of change.
- $3 exactas: 3, 9 with 2, 3, 6, 9 ($18)
- $1 exacta box: 6 with 3, 9 ($4)
